One of five commentaries from the 13 November 2024 event in the Panel Discussion Series: American Election 2024, from The Finsbury Institute, City International Policy Studies, and the Research Group on Global (Dis)Order.
By Dr Ahmed Waheed (Roads Initiative; NUST, Islamabad, Pakistan)
Pakistan-US relations have historically been of a transactional nature. The “good” relations between Pakistan-US relations have always been characterized by their convergences on strategic matter in South Asia, especially when it comes to security. Given the absence of any meaningful convergence in the last 10 years, Pakistan-US relations have been comparatively at a low point highlighted by the fact that Pakistan has received only $950 million of aid in the last 10 years.
Donald Trump’s presidency will probably have little impact on Pakistan-US relations. This is because of firstly, Trump’s policies put American domestic interests first as opposed to other international concerns. Secondly, Trump’s policies will skew more towards Modi’s India in a bid to accentuate the economic interests of both countries, which will leave Pakistan relevant only to matters of security in the region, which as far as Trump is concerned, are too marginal to garner any attention.
However, there is optimism within the Pakistani diaspora and the Pakistani public that Trump will play a role in the release of Imran Khan, who has been incarcerated by the Pakistani state. This optimism spurns Trump’s “friendliness” towards Imran Khan in his previous tenure. However, that ‘friendship” too was premised on US withdrawal from Afghanistan. As it stands, within the Trump Administration, Pakistan is largely irrelevant because of the absence of American security concerns.
Generally, Trump's foreign policy, particularly towards developing countries, is expected to continue his "America First" approach. This means prioritizing U.S. interests, often at the expense of international cooperation and aid. His first administration focused on reducing foreign aid, emphasizing bilateral trade deals over multilateral agreements, and confronting economic practices he views as unfair, particularly from countries like China.
Pakistan’s historical alliance with China in the region will likely put Pakistan in a tough spot where it will have to balance its relationship with the US and maintain its alliance with China. The US approach under Trump could lead to less support for development initiatives in the Third World and Pakistan, as the focus shifts towards protecting American jobs and industries. This means that not only will Pakistan be sidelined economically, its irrelevance in American security calculus will make it further insignificant to the US.