One of four commentaries from the 29 January 2025 event in the Panel Discussion Series: American Election 2024, from The Finsbury Institute, City International Policy Studies, and the Research Group on Global (Dis)Order.
By Dr Andrew Payne
Donald Trump currently wields an extraordinary degree of political power. Some describe him as a dictator, a king, or even an emperor—and for now, that perception is not entirely unfounded.
Trump holds the political "trifecta"—Republican control of the White House, House, and Senate—allowing him, in theory, to pass legislation without bipartisan compromise. Years of reshaping the Republican Party in his image have solidified his dominance. His influence extends to the judiciary as well; Supreme Court appointments during his first term shifted the Court rightward, making it less likely to challenge his policies. The Court’s ruling on presidential immunity last year further expanded executive authority.
Trump also claims a powerful popular mandate. His victory in the popular vote and dominance in key swing states bolster his populist credentials, allowing him to frame his actions as the will of the average American. Beyond politics, he enjoys the backing of a new class of American oligarchs. Figures like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg had more prominence at his inauguration than his own cabinet. Many business leaders, who once opposed him, have realigned with his administration. As Trump himself noted, the difference between his first and second term is that now, “everyone wants to be his friend.”
Public resistance has also shifted. Unlike in 2017, mass protests have been minimal, replaced by a general sense of resignation. Meanwhile, Trump has moved aggressively to consolidate control, purging career officials in favour of loyalists. His transition team administered loyalty oaths, and security clearances for those seen as restraining influences in his first term—such as Mark Milley—have been revoked. His swift actions on tariffs, foreign aid, and diversity initiatives reflect the breadth of his authority.
Yet, despite this appearance of significant power, Trump’s time in office is limited. As a second-term president, his authority faces an unavoidable expiration date. Unless he succeeds in changing the Constitution—an unlikely prospect—his presidency will end in four years. And no leader, not even Trump, is immune to the constraints of political time.
Congressional math also works against him. Despite Republican control, the party’s margins in the House and Senate are razor-thin. The House majority is the smallest in modern history, and the Senate is so divided that his administration already struggled to confirm a Secretary of Defense. These margins will likely shrink or vanish in the midterms. Even if Trump can maintain party unity—despite deep divides over issues like national debt and Ukraine—his legislative window is effectively just two years.
Meanwhile, succession politics will soon take centre stage. Trump may attempt to groom a successor, such as J.D. Vance, but the very process of identifying an heir signals a shift in his influence. Over time, he will transition from commander-in-chief to GOP kingmaker.
Given these constraints, Trump will increasingly rely on executive authority. He already favours the performative aspects of governance, signing dozens of executive orders in a sports arena on his first day back in office. However, as that spectacle demonstrated, executive actions are temporary; they can be reversed by the next administration. The most enduring legacies are built through legislation, and securing such achievements will only grow harder with time.
As Trump moves beyond re-election concerns, his focus will likely shift to legacy-building. In his first term, political self-interest dictated many of his decisions—whether undercutting his China trade war to appease agricultural states or reconsidering a TikTok ban to appeal to younger voters. Now, especially after the midterms, expect a focus on high-profile legacy projects, such as a “deal of the century” in the Middle East.
