One of four commentaries from the 29 January 2025 event in the Panel Discussion Series: American Election 2024, from The Finsbury Institute, City International Policy Studies, and the Research Group on Global (Dis)Order.
By Professor Daniela Vieira Secche (PUC Minas, Brazil)
The state of US democracy has relevant impacts on US performance as a hegemon and has profound influences on political regimes all over the world. Latin America is a special case here. The continent stands as an intriguing case for democracy – colonial past, recurrent cycles of authoritarianism, highly unequal and divided societies, and subservient relations with international powers, especially considering here United States role in the continent. Considering the geopolitical relevance that United States has for the region, US state of democracy after 2024 elections may impact Latin America in two main different ways, depending on (1) how the continent will be treated by Trump foreign policy; and (2) considering the impact of Trump second mandate on the far-right movement in the continent concerning values and practices.
US foreign policy to Latin America has been marked by a benign neglect combined with a taken-for-granted possibility to interfere and dominate. In Trump II discourse, we can observe that this possibility to interfere and dominate strongly appears in several agendas – especially migration, drug trafficking, and relations with China, all interconnected with trade and tariffs policies. Migration is considered a central cause of the fentanyl epidemy in US, and hard measures presented for it are quite similar – strong and often violent control and lack of regard to the rule of law and to human rights. Though so far it does not seem to be the trend, a closer relation with Latin America in order both to push away Chinese influence in strategic sectors and to control migration and drug trafficking is a possibility. It should also be noted the presence of politicians that have a more radicalized position on Latin American in Trump II second cabinet – Marco Rubio as State Secretary; Mauricio Clever-Carone as special adviser for Latin America; Richard Grenell, as special president envoy for special missions; and Tom Homan and Stephen Miller roles for migration policies.
As an exponent of far-right in the world, Trump II discourse aligns and reinforces Latin America far-right groups, and his presence at the White House again can contribute to strengthen these politicians in the continent. There is a very similar behavior between Trump II voters and Latin America far-right electorate that is based on cultural war, economic demands, and ideological and belonging issues largely articulated by evangelical Christendom. We should pay attention to forthcoming elections in Chile (2025), Brazil (2026), Colombia (2026), and Guatemala (2027).
Finally, it is important to highlight that harsher measures on tariffs with Latin American countries and mass deportations can backfire into more solidarity among left-wing and centralist leaderships in the continent thus impacting far-right chances in forthcoming elections. Trump II policies on tariffs, migration and drug trafficking without a clear cooperation plan with Latin America can also lead the continent to get closer to powers as China and Russia. China is already the main trade partner of South America, and the second main trade partner of whole Latin America. Russia relations with the continent is also getting deeper as part of its plan to foster relations with its far-abroad. Russian trade and investment in the region are not as great as the Chinese, but it is steadily increasing, and we can note also deeper political dialogue through forums like BRICS and Brazilian-Chinese peace initiative for Russian-Ukraine conflict.
About the author
Professor Daniela Vieira Secches, PUC Minas, Brazil
Daniela Vieira Secches coordinates and is one of the founders of the Russia-Latin America Observatory (Ruslat). She has a PhD in International Relations (IR) from the Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais (PUC Minas). She earned her Master in Political Science from Masaryk University, Czech Republic, and holds undergraduate degrees in IR from PUC Minas and in Law from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
She coordinates and teaches at the Undergraduate Program in IR, and is a permanent professor in the Graduate Program in IR at PUC Minas. She serves as a member of the Brazilian Association of International Relations directive board (ABRI, 2023-2025). Her areas of interest include Eastern European States, Latin America, and discussions of theory and method in IR.