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Professor Peter Ayton

Visiting Lecturer

School of Health & Medical Sciences Department of Psychology and Neuroscience

Contact details

About

Overview

Professor Ayton studies behavioural decision theory. Specifically, his research investigates how people make judgments and decisions under conditions of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. He uses a variety of empirical methods including laboratory experiments, surveys and field studies.

He is a member of the European Association for Decision Making and the Society for Judgment & Decision Making and currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making; Current Psychology Letters: Behaviour, Brain & Cognition and Theory and Psychology.

Professor Ayton joined the Psychology Department at City in 1992 following research and lecturing posts at the City of London Polytechnic and a post at the BBC as manager of special projects in their Broadcasting Research Department.

He has been a visiting scholar at Princeton University, Carnegie-Mellon University, the University of California Los Angeles, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, the University of Mannheim, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Bilkent University, and INSEAD in both Fontainebleau and Singapore.

Teaching

- PS1003 Cognitive Approaches to Mind & Behaviour
- PS2003 Cognitive Psychology 1
- PS2001 Research Methods in Psychology
- PS3003 Judgment & Decision Making
- PS3001 Psychology Project
- PSM502 Design of Environments and Work and Human-Machine Interaction

Research

Research interests

- Behavioural decision theory
- Behavioural decision-making
- Risk
- Uncertainty
- Affect
- Well-being
- Psychology

Publications

Publications by category

Books (4)

  • Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (2008). Myths and Facts about Football. Cambridge Scholars Publishing. ISBN 9781443801140.
  • Wright, G., Transport, G.B.D.F., Ayton, P., Rowe, G. and van Der Pligt, J. (2006). Post-court road safety interventions for convicted traffic offenders. ISBN 9781904763727.
  • Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1994). Subjective probability. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780471944430.
  • Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Judgmental forecasting. John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Chapters (28)

  • Ayton, P. (2011). The Bomb Party Probability Illusion. In Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkebøen, G. and Montgomery, H. (Eds.), Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making (pp. 76-87). Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.. ISBN 9788215018782.
  • Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2010). Automation Biases in CAD-assisted Decision Making. In Samei, E. and Krupinski, E. (Eds.), The Handbook of Medical Image Perception and Techniques Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521513920.
  • Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2009). Computer Aided Detection: Risks and benefits for radiologists' decisions. In Samei, E. and Krupinski, E. (Eds.), The Handbook of Medical Image Perception and Techniques (pp. 320-332). Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521513920.
  • Aldrovandi, S., Poirier, M., Heussen, D. and Ayton, P. (2009). Memory strategies mediate the relationships between memory and judgment. In Taatgen, N.A. and van Rijn, H. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2457-2462). Cognitive Science Society.
  • Ayton, P. and Braennberg, A. (2008). Fallacies in Footballers. In Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (Eds.), Myths and Facts about Football Cambridge Scholars Publishing. ISBN 9781847186225.
  • Harries, C. and Ayton, P. (2007). Medical Decision Making. In Ayers, S., Baum, A. and McManus, C. (Eds.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521605106.
  • Kysar, D.A., Ayton, P., FRANK, R., FREY, B., GIGERENZER, G., GLIMCHER, P.... MAGEN, S. (2006). Are heuristics a problem or a solution? In Gigerenzer, G. and Engel, C. (Eds.), Heuristics and the law The MIT Press. ISBN 9780262072755.
  • Ayton, P. (2005). Judgment and Decision-Making. In Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. (Eds.), Cognitive psychology Oxford University Press, USA. ISBN 9780199273768.
  • Ayton, P. (2005). Subjective Probability And Human Judgment. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science ISBN 9780470860809.
  • Hardman, D. and Ayton, P. (2004). Argumentation and decisions. In Smith, K., Shanteau, J. and Johnson, P.E. (Eds.), Psychological investigations of competence in decision making Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521583060.
  • Ayton, P. (2001). Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment. In McCarthy, J.J. (Ed.), Climate change 2001 Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521015004.
  • Ayton, P. (1998). How bad is human judgment? In Wright, G. and Goodwin, P. (Eds.), Forecasting with judgment Wiley. ISBN 9780471970149.
  • Ayton, P. (1998). Why does psychology need methodology? In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide London: London: Erlbaum.
  • Ayton, P. (1998). Why does psychology need methodology? In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide. London: Erlbaum.
  • Ayton, P. (1998). Experimental versus correlational approaches. In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide. London: Erlbaum.
  • Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). The StAR Risk Adviser: Psychological Arguments for Qualitative Risk Assessment. In Redmill, F. (Ed.), Safety Critical Systems Springer-Verlag..
  • Ayton, P., Wright, G. and Rowe, G. (1997). Medical Decision Making. In Baum, A. (Ed.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health, and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521436861.
  • Rowe, G., Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1997). Judgment and Decision Making. In Baum, A. (Ed.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health, and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 9780521436861.
  • Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). Psychological Arguments For Qualitative Approaches To Risk and Uncertainty. Social shaping of technology San Sebastian: University of Bilbao Press..
  • Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1996). Understanding and Communicating Risk: A Psychological Overview. In Redmill, F. (Ed.), Safety Critical Systems Springer-Verlag.
  • Fox, J., Hardman, D., Krause, P., Ayton, P. and Judson, P. (1995). Risk assessment and engineering: a cognitive engineering approach. In Macintosh, A. and Cooper, C. (Eds.), roceedings of Expert Systems 1995 (pp. 377-390). Cambridge University Press.
  • Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1994). Subjective probability: What should we believe? In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 163-183). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780471944430.
  • Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In Wright, G. and Bolger, F. (Eds.), Expertise and decision support Springer. ISBN 9780306438622.
  • Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). The use of probability axioms for evaluating and improving forecasts. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P., Cropper, S.A. and Societies, I.F.O.O.R. (Eds.), Operational research and the social sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation.
  • Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). Gateways for judgment in statistical forecasting models. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P., Cropper, S.A. and Societies, I.F.O.O.R. (Eds.), Operational research and the social sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation.
  • Ayton, P. (1987). The psychology of forecasting. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Ayton, P. Judgment and Decision-Making. In Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. (Eds.), Cognitive Psychology Oxford University Press, USA.
  • Ayton, P. and Helleringer, G. (2017). Bias, self-insight, vested interests and self-deception in judgment and decision-making: challenges set by the requirement of arbitrator impartiality. In Cole, A. (Ed.), The Roles of Psychology in International Arbitration. Kluwer.

Conference papers and proceedings (15)

  • Filkukova, P., Ayton, P. and Langguth, J. Motivated reasoning in the evaluation of news quality. .
  • Radu, X., Jofre-Bonet, M., Ayton, P. and Cubi-Molla, P. Patients Acknowledge Adaptation: The Case Of Amputees. .doi:10.1016/j.jval.2017.08.1751
  • Ayton, P., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Wright, D. (2013). Preference for predictable or uncertain probabilities and the risk of failure. SPUDM 2013, 24th Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision-Making Conference 18-22 August, Barcelona.
  • Ayton, P., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Wright, D. (2012). Better the devil you don't know. Society for Judgment & Decision Making (SJDM) Conference 16-19 November, Minneapolis.
  • Aldrovandi, S., Poirier, M., Kusev, P., Heussen, D. and Ayton, P. Now I like it, now I don’t: Delay effects and retrospective judgment. .
  • Alberdi, E., Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A.A., Ayton, P., Buth, B., Rabe, G.... Seyfarth, T. Why Are People's Decisions Sometimes Worse with Computer Support? SAFECOMP 2009, 28th International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security.doi:10.1007/978-3-642-04468-7_3
  • Ayton, P. How software can help or hinder human decision making (and vice-versa). .
  • Alberdi, E., Ayton, P., Povyakalo, A.A. and Strigini, L. Automation bias and system design: A case study in a medical application. .doi:10.1049/ic:20050451
  • Strigini, L., Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A. and Ayton, P. (2005). Automation bias in medical decision making: A study of unreliable computer advice in breast cancer screening. 27th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM05) October-, San Francisco.
  • Ayton, P., Roman, G.-.C., Griswold, W.G. and Nuseibeh, B. Extending the discipline: how software can help or hinder human decision making (and vice-versa). .
  • Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A., Strigini, L., Ayton, P., Lemke, H.U., Vannier, M.W.... Reiber, J.H.C. Does incorrect computer prompting affect human decision making? A case study in mammography. .
  • Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A., Alberdi, E. and Ayton, P. Decision support or automation bias? A study of computer aided decision making in breast screening. Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making (SPUDM 2003).
  • Ayton, P.J. Judgement under uncertainty and the cognitive illusion illusion. .
  • Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). Psychological aspects of forecasting with statistical methods. . In Proceedings of the 8th International Multiple Criteria Decision Making Conference Berlin: Springer Verlag.
  • Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A., Alberdi, E., Ayton, P., Dearden, A. and Watts, L. Evaluating 'Human + Advisory computer' systems: A case study. HCI2004,18th British HCI Group Annual Conference.

Internet publication

Journal articles (120)

Scholarly edition

  • Balasuriya, J., Muradoglu, Y.G. and Ayton, P. Optimism and Portfolio Choice.

Professional activities

Online articles (25)

  • A gift of life or a denial of choice? (2008). the guardian
  • Dread Risk. (2005). the guardian
  • MMR risks. (2002). the guardian
  • Why vote? (2001). New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2292) 49
  • Don’t talk to me now! (2001). New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2290) 49
  • Ditherer’s Dilemma. (2000). New Scientist, Vol.165 no.2225 47
  • Fonder memories. (1999). New Scientist, Vol. 163 No. 2205 47
  • Fonder memories. (1999). New Scientist, Vol. 163 No. 2205 47
  • Risk, Frequency and Probability. (1997). The Independent on Sunday
  • God, Science and other fallacies. (1997). The guardian
  • BBC and Bias. (1997). The Guardian
  • Good causes and the lottery. (1995). the independent
  • The National Lottery. (1995). The Independent
  • The National Lottery. (1995). The Guardian
  • BBC and Bias. (1995). The Independent
  • Broadcasting and Impartiality. (1995). The Guardian
  • Attitudes to Smoking. (1995). The Guardian
  • Memory and comprehension of television weather forecasts. (1992). The Observer
  • The rationality of the proposed state lottery. (1992). The Guardian
  • Memory and comprehension of television weather forecasts. (1992). The Times
  • Psychology, punishment and criminal justice. (1991). The Guardian
  • The pros and cons of perceptions of programme bias. (1990). The Guardian
  • Television commentary: Can anything useful be said? (1987). The Listener p29
  • Commentators' forecasts of football results. (1987). The Guardian
  • When chance is not such a fine thing. (1984). The Guardian Co-author: Wright, G. p.13

Other (7)

  • On memory for broadcast news. (with A.G.R. McClelland & R.E. Rawles) Radio Times May 10th, 1982. .
  • Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, June 28th, 1984. .
  • Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, July 12th, 1984. .
  • Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, July 12th, 1984. .
  • Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, August 2nd, 1984. .
  • John Searle's Reith Lectures. The Listener, December 6th, 1984. .
  • The effects of television violence. The Listener, December 19th, 1985. .